Bullock says the economy feels like a recession; Chalmers now has the hot potato

A steaming coffee mug left on the Reserve Bank’s conference table hints that the central bankers are handing over a warm baton to Jim Chalmers – after all, the economy feels like a recession, but it isn’t officially one.

Michele Bullock, the RBA Governor, has said the country is not in a recession, yet she conceded it “sure feels like one.” The statement was a polite way of saying the economy is auditioning for a disaster‑film role.

The implication is clear: the RBA has done its part, quietly stepping back after the cake is cut, and now the real show is about to begin for Treasury’s Jim Chalmers.

Chalmers, who now finds himself with a fiscal toolbox that feels more like a set of garden shears, will have to navigate a landscape that looks as flat as a drought‑parched outback and as bumpy as a council road repair.

Insiders say the Treasury’s next move will involve more than just adjusting the interest‑rate knob – it may require a full‑scale, if understated, “let’s‑pretend‑this‑is‑not‑a‑recession” campaign, complete with reassuring press releases and a steady supply of economic jargon.

Meanwhile, the public, accustomed to the RBA’s calm assurances, will likely be watching the Treasury’s every spreadsheet like a crowd at a council meeting waiting for the next coffee break.

The whole affair has the feel of a classic Australian queue: everyone is standing in line, some are impatient, and the person at the front keeps apologising for the delay.

If the economy does decide to take a nosedive, at least the fiscal ministers can claim they were warned by the central bank’s “feeling like a recession” comment, which, in Australian parlance, is about as concrete as a weather forecast from a suburb’s local radio.

In the end, Bullock’s concession may prove to be the most honest admission the country has seen in a while.