One Nation’s anti‑migration plan would add $275 billion to federal debt, PBO finds

The Parliamentary Budget Office’s ten‑year forecast shows One Nation’s blunt push to curb migration would swell the federal debt by $275 billion, underlining the fiscal folly of the proposal.

A spreadsheet showing $275 billion in extra debt looks about as comforting as a cold shower in the middle of a Sydney heatwave, but that’s the stark tableau the PBO has painted for One Nation’s anti‑migration blueprint.

The analysis, which runs the numbers over a decade, suggests that slashing the flow of new arrivals would not trim the national purse but rather inflate it by a sum that would make even the most seasoned budget‑cutter wince.

In plain English, the party’s plan to keep the doors shut on newcomers would force the Commonwealth to borrow enough to fund a small country’s worth of infrastructure – if that country were built entirely out of red‑ink.

The Parliamentary Budget Office, armed with its usual array of spreadsheets and a healthy dose of scepticism, ran the scenario through its models and emerged with the headline figure: $275 billion of additional debt over ten years.

Critics, who have long warned that blunt immigration cuts are a fiscal boomerang, will point to the PBO’s findings as proof that the party’s policy is less about economics and more about a nostalgic longing for a bygone era.

Meanwhile, the average voter, accustomed to hearing about “saving the nation”, might find the idea of a $275 billion debt increase harder to swallow than a second serving of Vegemite on toast.

The report does not prescribe a cure, but it does suggest that any genuine attempt to balance the books will need to look beyond simply turning people away at the border.

In the end, the PBO’s numbers remind us that while the party can promise protection, the price tag it carries is anything but small.