RBA deputy warns inflation could become a nightmare as markets peg November hike at 42%

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told a speech that sounded more like a weather forecast for the economy that inflation could shift from "nice" to a "central‑banker’s nightmare." He warned the outlook could become "materially worse," a phrase that would fit comfortably on a horror‑movie set list.

Meanwhile, the RBA’s own probability calculator, which seems to enjoy a bit of ambiguity, still puts the chance of a November rate hike at 42%.

Analysts are busy debating whether that 42% figure is a decent probability or a cosmic joke, while the Bank of England’s charts are doing their own version of the dance in a parallel universe.

The market, ever the party animal, twirls around the number, trading bonds like confetti and keeping inflation in its own little bubble.

In the end, investors are left holding the bag, hoping the nightmare remains just a headline and not a reality.